ELECTION PREDICTIONS OFFICIAL FORECAST

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

LAST UPDATED: JUNE 10, 2024

Rating changes since last update:
Minnesota shifted from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat”
New Hampshire shifted from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat”
Iowa shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican”
Ohio shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican”
Alaska shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican”
Maine-02 shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican”

Below you will find projected margins of victory and estimated vote shares for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in every state, as well as third party candidates. Central to this model is a consolidated polling average, sourced from reputable election analysts that further takes into account past polling errors and similar election outcomes in each state to create a more fundamentally accurate average. Yet, the potential of any forecast to forecast elections precisely is heightened by incorporating data not solely from polls, but also from factors like historical election results, margin shifts and trends, prediction markets, socio-demographic data, and external race ratings from industry experts. This all-encompassing strategy has demonstrated its ability to enhance the precision and resilience of my election predictions over time. To see how my models performed in previous elections, click "Track Record" in the menu above.

Click on a state to view more data.

Double-click on a state for race-specific page.

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...or double-click on the + for race-specific page.

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StateJoe BidenDonald Trump3rd PartyEst. Turnout
+Alabama32.5%61.0%6.4%2,210,420
+Alaska37.2%49.7%13.0%346,793
+Arizona45.4%46.5%8.1%3,429,520
+Arkansas29.6%61.1%9.3%1,161,531
+California59.8%31.2%9.1%17,354,483
+Colorado51.0%40.0%9.0%3,196,235
+Connecticut56.4%36.6%7.0%1,747,356
+Delaware55.3%37.8%6.8%488,961
D.C.87.7%4.1%8.2%330,286
+Florida42.8%50.8%6.3%10,889,036
+Georgia45.6%47.8%6.6%4,942,260
+Hawaii60.1%31.9%8.0%578,858
+Idaho27.3%60.7%12.0%867,534
+Illinois54.3%37.9%7.8%5,733,566
+Indiana36.6%55.7%7.7%2,930,137
+Iowa40.5%51.4%8.0%1,598,280
+Kansas37.9%53.0%9.1%1,331,619
+Kentucky31.8%60.8%7.4%2,054,422
+Louisiana36.4%56.3%7.3%2,023,902
+Maine (statewide)49.0%41.8%9.2%784,046
Maine-0157.0%35.2%7.8%415,805
Maine-0239.5%50.1%10.5%351,339
+Maryland61.7%29.9%8.4%2,893,118
+Massachusetts62.8%28.7%8.5%3,469,771
+Michigan46.7%46.1%7.3%5,363,095
+Minnesota48.7%42.1%9.2%3,136,632
+Mississippi37.0%56.8%6.2%1,231,646
+Missouri37.3%55.1%7.7%2,860,677
+Montana36.0%53.9%10.1%596,176
+Nebraska (statewide)35.2%56.1%8.7%925,938
Nebraska-0138.2%54.0%7.8%312,660
Nebraska-0249.0%43.5%7.5%330,276
Nebraska-0319.2%73.2%7.5%289,895
+Nevada45.2%46.0%8.8%1,408,213
+New Hampshire49.5%42.9%7.6%767,765
+New Jersey54.1%39.0%7.0%4,437,416
+New Mexico50.2%40.9%8.9%895,693
+New York57.2%35.6%7.2%8,317,968
+North Carolina44.7%48.9%6.4%5,394,085
+North Dakota26.3%63.6%10.1%342,006
+Ohio40.6%51.9%7.5%5,588,341
+Oklahoma29.9%64.4%5.8%1,490,069
+Oregon52.6%36.3%11.0%2,344,280
+Pennsylvania46.6%46.5%6.9%6,677,541
+Rhode Island56.6%34.8%8.6%497,238
+South Carolina39.2%53.9%6.9%2,475,894
+South Dakota31.0%60.4%8.6%409,172
+Tennessee34.1%58.7%7.2%2,996,594
+Texas42.5%50.7%6.8%11,378,377
+Utah31.0%55.6%13.4%1,511,561
+Vermont62.4%26.2%11.4%358,150
+Virginia50.4%42.2%7.4%4,286,524
+Washington53.4%35.9%10.6%4,059,708
+West Virginia26.1%65.9%8.0%760,000
+Wisconsin45.9%46.7%7.3%3,138,490
+Wyoming20.5%68.3%11.1%262,796
StateRace RatingProjected Margin Joe BidenDonald Trump 3rd Party: Est. Turnout
+AlabamaSafe GOPR+28.532.5%719,38761.0%1,348,8086.4%142,2252,210,420
+AlaskaSafe GOPR+12.537.2%129,09749.7%172,51313.0%45,183346,793
+ArizonaTilt GOPR+1.145.4%1,557,59946.5%1,594,9788.1%276,9433,429,520
+ArkansasSafe GOPR+31.529.6%343,57661.1%709,9269.3%108,0291,161,531
+CaliforniaSafe DemD+28.659.8%10,374,31431.2%5,408,2959.1%1,571,87417,354,483
+ColoradoSafe DemD+11.051.0%1,630,23540.0%1,278,0959.0%287,9053,196,235
+ConnecticutSafe DemD+19.856.4%985,78036.6%639,0157.0%122,5611,747,356
+DelawareSafe DemD+17.555.3%270,59437.8%184,8796.8%33,488488,961
District of ColumbiaSafe DemD+83.787.7%289,7444.1%13,3778.2%27,165330,286
+FloridaLikely GOPR+8.042.8%4,663,64150.8%5,534,8236.3%690,57210,889,036
+GeorgiaTilt GOPR+2.245.6%2,252,24547.8%2,362,5256.6%327,4914,942,260
+HawaiiSafe DemD+28.260.1%347,96431.9%184,6638.0%46,231578,858
+IdahoSafe GOPR+33.327.3%237,15960.7%526,17312.0%104,202867,534
+IllinoisSafe DemD+16.454.3%3,112,76937.9%2,173,8257.8%446,9725,733,566
+IndianaSafe GOPR+19.136.6%1,072,04155.7%1,631,2757.7%226,8222,930,137
+IowaSafe GOPR+10.940.5%647,96551.4%822,0268.0%128,2881,598,280
+KansasSafe GOPR+15.137.9%504,51853.0%706,1509.1%120,9511,331,619
+KentuckySafe GOPR+29.031.8%653,97260.8%1,248,8847.4%151,5662,054,422
+LouisianaSafe GOPR+20.036.4%736,08456.3%1,140,0797.3%147,7402,023,902
+Maine (statewide)Likely DemD+7.349.0%384,54841.8%327,5219.2%71,977784,046
Maine-01Safe DemD+21.857.0%236,86335.2%146,4167.8%32,525415,805
Maine-02Safe GOPR+10.639.5%138,61850.1%175,97610.5%36,746351,339
+MarylandSafe DemD+31.961.7%1,786,02129.9%863,9748.4%243,1232,893,118
+MassachusettsSafe DemD+34.162.8%2,179,49328.7%996,9678.5%293,3113,469,771
+MichiganTilt DemD+0.646.7%2,502,39946.1%2,470,1167.3%390,5805,363,095
+MinnesotaLean DemD+6.648.7%1,527,50842.1%1,321,0229.2%288,1023,136,632
+MississippiSafe GOPR+19.737.0%456,32456.8%699,0986.2%76,2231,231,646
+MissouriSafe GOPR+17.837.3%1,065,79355.1%1,575,5607.7%219,3242,860,677
+MontanaSafe GOPR+17.936.0%214,51353.9%321,26610.1%60,397596,176
+Nebraska (statewide)Safe GOPR+20.935.2%325,92156.1%519,2128.7%80,805925,938
Nebraska-01Safe GOPR+15.938.2%119,39054.0%168,9547.8%24,316312,660
Nebraska-02Lean DemD+5.449.0%161,76943.5%143,7857.5%24,722330,276
Nebraska-03Safe GOPR+54.019.2%55,76773.2%212,3277.5%21,801289,895
+NevadaTilt GOPR+0.845.2%636,49046.0%648,1978.8%123,5261,408,213
+New HampshireLean DemD+6.749.5%380,31942.9%329,1517.6%58,294767,765
+New JerseySafe DemD+15.154.1%2,398,67039.0%1,730,1987.0%308,5484,437,416
+New MexicoLikely DemD+9.350.2%449,48640.9%366,0718.9%80,136895,693
+New YorkSafe DemD+21.657.2%4,757,63435.6%2,960,7267.2%599,6088,317,968
+North CarolinaLean GOPR+4.244.7%2,410,30748.9%2,636,9696.4%346,8085,394,085
+North DakotaSafe GOPR+37.326.3%89,83563.6%217,51410.1%34,656342,006
+OhioSafe GOPR+11.340.6%2,270,08151.9%2,900,8147.5%417,4455,588,341
+OklahomaSafe GOPR+34.529.9%444,88364.4%959,2375.8%85,9501,490,069
+OregonSafe DemD+16.352.6%1,233,32336.3%852,00511.0%258,9522,344,280
+PennsylvaniaTilt DemD+0.146.6%3,109,68746.5%3,105,2476.9%462,6076,677,541
+Rhode IslandSafe DemD+21.756.6%281,36434.8%173,2858.6%42,589497,238
+South CarolinaSafe GOPR+14.739.2%970,54053.9%1,333,4086.9%171,9462,475,894
+South DakotaSafe GOPR+29.431.0%126,86560.4%247,0978.6%35,210409,172
+TennesseeSafe GOPR+24.734.1%1,021,10558.7%1,759,8777.2%215,6122,996,594
+TexasLikely GOPR+8.242.5%4,839,59150.7%5,768,0806.8%770,70611,378,377
+UtahSafe GOPR+24.531.0%469,33155.6%840,41313.4%201,8171,511,561
+VermontSafe DemD+36.362.4%223,62226.2%93,73911.4%40,789358,150
+VirginiaLikely DemD+8.250.4%2,160,69042.2%1,807,3527.4%318,4814,286,524
+WashingtonSafe DemD+17.553.4%2,168,45435.9%1,458,90210.6%432,3524,059,708
+West VirginiaSafe GOPR+39.826.1%198,63565.9%500,8068.0%60,559760,000
+WisconsinTilt GOPR+0.845.9%1,441,85246.7%1,465,9717.3%230,6663,138,490
+WyomingSafe GOPR+47.820.5%53,96868.3%179,60811.1%29,220262,796

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