ELECTION PREDICTIONS OFFICIAL FORECAST
2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
LAST UPDATED: MAY 1, 2024
Rating changes since last update:
Florida shifted from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican”
Texas shifted from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican”
Colorado shifted from “Likely Democrat” to “Safe Democrat”
Below you will find projected margins of victory and estimated vote shares for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in every state, as well as third party candidates. Central to this model is a consolidated polling average, sourced from reputable election analysts that further takes into account past polling errors and similar election outcomes in each state to create a more fundamentally accurate average. Yet, the potential of any forecast to forecast elections precisely is heightened by incorporating data not solely from polls, but also from factors like historical election results, margin shifts and trends, prediction markets, socio-demographic data, and external race ratings from industry experts. This all-encompassing strategy has demonstrated its ability to enhance the precision and resilience of my election predictions over time. To see how my models performed in previous elections, click "Track Record" in the menu above.
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| State | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | 3rd Party | Est. Turnout | |||
| + | Alabama | 33.3% | 59.8% | 6.9% | 2,210,420 | ||
| + | Alaska | 39.4% | 49.8% | 10.8% | 346,793 | ||
| + | Arizona | 45.9% | 46.2% | 7.9% | 3,429,520 | ||
| + | Arkansas | 30.8% | 60.6% | 8.6% | 1,161,531 | ||
| + | California | 59.6% | 32.0% | 8.4% | 17,354,483 | ||
| + | Colorado | 52.3% | 39.3% | 8.4% | 3,196,235 | ||
| + | Connecticut | 56.8% | 36.0% | 7.2% | 1,747,356 | ||
| + | Delaware | 55.9% | 37.0% | 7.1% | 488,961 | ||
| D.C. | 90.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 323,715 | |||
| + | Florida | 42.5% | 50.6% | 6.8% | 10,889,036 | ||
| + | Georgia | 46.1% | 46.9% | 7.0% | 4,942,260 | ||
| + | Hawaii | 60.8% | 31.4% | 7.8% | 578,858 | ||
| + | Idaho | 29.0% | 60.8% | 10.2% | 867,534 | ||
| + | Illinois | 54.9% | 37.4% | 7.7% | 5,733,566 | ||
| + | Indiana | 36.9% | 55.4% | 7.7% | 2,930,137 | ||
| + | Iowa | 40.4% | 51.7% | 7.8% | 1,598,280 | ||
| + | Kansas | 39.0% | 52.6% | 8.5% | 1,331,619 | ||
| + | Kentucky | 32.2% | 60.4% | 7.5% | 2,054,422 | ||
| + | Louisiana | 37.2% | 55.4% | 7.4% | 2,023,902 | ||
| + | Maine (statewide) | 49.8% | 41.7% | 8.5% | 784,046 | ||
| Maine-01 | 57.8% | 34.5% | 7.7% | 415,805 | |||
| Maine-02 | 40.9% | 49.8% | 9.3% | 351,339 | |||
| + | Maryland | 61.8% | 30.2% | 8.1% | 2,893,118 | ||
| + | Massachusetts | 62.7% | 29.2% | 8.1% | 3,469,771 | ||
| + | Michigan | 46.6% | 46.0% | 7.4% | 5,363,095 | ||
| + | Minnesota | 49.7% | 41.8% | 8.5% | 3,136,632 | ||
| + | Mississippi | 37.3% | 56.0% | 6.8% | 1,231,646 | ||
| + | Missouri | 37.7% | 54.7% | 7.6% | 2,860,677 | ||
| + | Montana | 36.6% | 54.4% | 9.1% | 596,176 | ||
| + | Nebraska (statewide) | 35.9% | 55.8% | 8.2% | 925,938 | ||
| Nebraska-01 | 38.6% | 53.7% | 7.7% | 312,660 | |||
| Nebraska-02 | 49.5% | 42.9% | 7.5% | 330,276 | |||
| Nebraska-03 | 17.7% | 74.8% | 7.5% | 289,895 | |||
| + | Nevada | 45.7% | 46.0% | 8.3% | 1,408,213 | ||
| + | New Hampshire | 50.5% | 42.0% | 7.6% | 767,765 | ||
| + | New Jersey | 54.6% | 38.2% | 7.2% | 4,437,416 | ||
| + | New Mexico | 50.9% | 40.7% | 8.4% | 895,693 | ||
| + | New York | 57.3% | 35.4% | 7.4% | 8,317,968 | ||
| + | North Carolina | 45.0% | 48.1% | 6.9% | 5,394,085 | ||
| + | North Dakota | 27.7% | 63.2% | 9.1% | 342,006 | ||
| + | Ohio | 40.5% | 52.0% | 7.5% | 5,588,341 | ||
| + | Oklahoma | 30.6% | 62.9% | 6.5% | 1,490,069 | ||
| + | Oregon | 53.8% | 36.6% | 9.6% | 2,344,280 | ||
| + | Pennsylvania | 46.7% | 46.1% | 7.2% | 6,677,541 | ||
| + | Rhode Island | 56.4% | 35.4% | 8.2% | 497,238 | ||
| + | South Carolina | 39.8% | 53.0% | 7.2% | 2,475,894 | ||
| + | South Dakota | 31.8% | 60.1% | 8.2% | 409,172 | ||
| + | Tennessee | 34.1% | 58.6% | 7.3% | 2,996,594 | ||
| + | Texas | 42.9% | 50.0% | 7.1% | 11,378,377 | ||
| + | Utah | 34.8% | 54.2% | 11.0% | 1,511,561 | ||
| + | Vermont | 62.6% | 27.6% | 9.8% | 358,150 | ||
| + | Virginia | 51.5% | 41.0% | 7.5% | 4,286,524 | ||
| + | Washington | 54.8% | 35.8% | 9.4% | 4,059,708 | ||
| + | West Virginia | 26.0% | 66.2% | 7.8% | 760,000 | ||
| + | Wisconsin | 45.8% | 46.7% | 7.4% | 3,138,490 | ||
| + | Wyoming | 22.0% | 68.4% | 9.7% | 262,796 |
| State | Race Rating | Projected Margin | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | 3rd Party: | Est. Turnout | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| + | Alabama | Safe GOP | R+26.5 | 33.3% | 736,370 | 59.8% | 1,321,581 | 6.9% | 152,469 | 2,210,420 | ||||
| + | Alaska | Likely GOP | R+10.3 | 39.4% | 136,770 | 49.8% | 172,639 | 10.8% | 37,384 | 346,793 | ||||
| + | Arizona | Tilt GOP | R+0.3 | 45.9% | 1,575,215 | 46.2% | 1,584,613 | 7.9% | 269,691 | 3,429,520 | ||||
| + | Arkansas | Safe GOP | R+29.9 | 30.8% | 357,343 | 60.6% | 704,469 | 8.6% | 99,719 | 1,161,531 | ||||
| + | California | Safe Dem | D+27.6 | 59.6% | 10,335,762 | 32.0% | 5,553,650 | 8.4% | 1,465,071 | 17,354,483 | ||||
| + | Colorado | Safe Dem | D+13.1 | 52.3% | 1,672,810 | 39.3% | 1,254,535 | 8.4% | 268,889 | 3,196,235 | ||||
| + | Connecticut | Safe Dem | D+20.8 | 56.8% | 992,209 | 36.0% | 628,655 | 7.2% | 126,493 | 1,747,356 | ||||
| + | Delaware | Safe Dem | D+18.8 | 55.9% | 273,087 | 37.0% | 180,954 | 7.1% | 34,920 | 488,961 | ||||
| District of Columbia | Safe Dem | D+84.6 | 88.3% | 291,746 | 3.7% | 12,276 | 8.0% | 26,264 | 330,286 | |||||
| + | Florida | Likely GOP | R+8.1 | 42.5% | 4,630,669 | 50.6% | 5,513,190 | 6.8% | 745,176 | 10,889,036 | ||||
| + | Georgia | Tilt GOP | R+0.8 | 46.1% | 2,278,439 | 46.9% | 2,317,329 | 7.0% | 346,493 | 4,942,260 | ||||
| + | Hawaii | Safe Dem | D+29.3 | 60.8% | 351,710 | 31.4% | 181,931 | 7.8% | 45,218 | 578,858 | ||||
| + | Idaho | Safe GOP | R+31.8 | 29.0% | 251,631 | 60.8% | 527,580 | 10.2% | 88,323 | 867,534 | ||||
| + | Illinois | Safe Dem | D+17.5 | 54.9% | 3,148,145 | 37.4% | 2,143,980 | 7.7% | 441,441 | 5,733,566 | ||||
| + | Indiana | Safe GOP | R+18.4 | 36.9% | 1,082,514 | 55.4% | 1,622,969 | 7.7% | 224,654 | 2,930,137 | ||||
| + | Iowa | Likely GOP | R+11.3 | 40.4% | 646,240 | 51.7% | 826,811 | 7.8% | 125,228 | 1,598,280 | ||||
| + | Kansas | Safe GOP | R+13.6 | 39.0% | 518,895 | 52.6% | 700,108 | 8.5% | 112,616 | 1,331,619 | ||||
| + | Kentucky | Safe GOP | R+28.2 | 32.2% | 661,026 | 60.4% | 1,240,279 | 7.5% | 153,117 | 2,054,422 | ||||
| + | Louisiana | Safe GOP | R+18.1 | 37.2% | 753,708 | 55.4% | 1,120,279 | 7.4% | 149,916 | 2,023,902 | ||||
| + | Maine (statewide) | Likely Dem | D+8.2 | 49.8% | 390,624 | 41.7% | 326,666 | 8.5% | 66,756 | 784,046 | ||||
| Maine-01 | Safe Dem | D+23.3 | 57.8% | 240,244 | 34.5% | 143,482 | 7.7% | 32,079 | 415,805 | |||||
| Maine-02 | Likely GOP | R+8.9 | 40.9% | 143,798 | 49.8% | 174,983 | 9.3% | 32,559 | 351,339 | |||||
| + | Maryland | Safe Dem | D+31.6 | 61.8% | 1,787,400 | 30.2% | 872,619 | 8.1% | 233,100 | 2,893,118 | ||||
| + | Massachusetts | Safe Dem | D+33.4 | 62.7% | 2,174,655 | 29.2% | 1,014,537 | 8.1% | 280,579 | 3,469,771 | ||||
| + | Michigan | Tilt Dem | D+0.6 | 46.6% | 2,500,496 | 46.0% | 2,465,878 | 7.4% | 396,721 | 5,363,095 | ||||
| + | Minnesota | Likely Dem | D+8.0 | 49.7% | 1,559,742 | 41.8% | 1,309,738 | 8.5% | 267,152 | 3,136,632 | ||||
| + | Mississippi | Safe GOP | R+18.7 | 37.3% | 459,142 | 56.0% | 689,329 | 6.8% | 83,175 | 1,231,646 | ||||
| + | Missouri | Safe GOP | R+17.0 | 37.7% | 1,078,113 | 54.7% | 1,564,484 | 7.6% | 218,080 | 2,860,677 | ||||
| + | Montana | Safe GOP | R+17.8 | 36.6% | 217,971 | 54.4% | 324,108 | 9.1% | 54,097 | 596,176 | ||||
| + | Nebraska (statewide) | Safe GOP | R+19.9 | 35.9% | 332,523 | 55.8% | 517,049 | 8.2% | 76,366 | 925,938 | ||||
| Nebraska-01 | Safe GOP | R+15.2 | 38.6% | 120,611 | 53.7% | 168,011 | 7.7% | 24,038 | 312,660 | |||||
| Nebraska-02 | Lean Dem | D+6.6 | 49.5% | 163,642 | 42.9% | 141,809 | 7.5% | 24,825 | 330,276 | |||||
| Nebraska-03 | Safe GOP | R+57.1 | 17.7% | 51,293 | 74.8% | 216,752 | 7.5% | 21,850 | 289,895 | |||||
| + | Nevada | Tilt GOP | R+0.2 | 45.7% | 644,185 | 46.0% | 647,514 | 8.3% | 116,514 | 1,408,213 | ||||
| + | New Hampshire | Likely Dem | D+8.5 | 50.5% | 387,463 | 42.0% | 322,107 | 7.6% | 58,194 | 767,765 | ||||
| + | New Jersey | Safe Dem | D+16.4 | 54.6% | 2,421,691 | 38.2% | 1,696,085 | 7.2% | 319,641 | 4,437,416 | ||||
| + | New Mexico | Likely Dem | D+10.2 | 50.9% | 456,023 | 40.7% | 364,638 | 8.4% | 75,031 | 895,693 | ||||
| + | New York | Safe Dem | D+21.9 | 57.3% | 4,765,857 | 35.4% | 2,940,441 | 7.4% | 611,669 | 8,317,968 | ||||
| + | North Carolina | Lean GOP | R+3.1 | 45.0% | 2,428,429 | 48.1% | 2,593,740 | 6.9% | 371,916 | 5,394,085 | ||||
| + | North Dakota | Safe GOP | R+35.4 | 27.7% | 94,904 | 63.2% | 216,064 | 9.1% | 31,038 | 342,006 | ||||
| + | Ohio | Likely GOP | R+11.5 | 40.5% | 2,264,396 | 52.0% | 2,904,403 | 7.5% | 419,542 | 5,588,341 | ||||
| + | Oklahoma | Safe GOP | R+32.4 | 30.6% | 455,270 | 62.9% | 937,861 | 6.5% | 96,938 | 1,490,069 | ||||
| + | Oregon | Safe Dem | D+17.2 | 53.8% | 1,260,895 | 36.6% | 858,035 | 9.6% | 225,350 | 2,344,280 | ||||
| + | Pennsylvania | Tilt Dem | D+0.6 | 46.7% | 3,119,426 | 46.1% | 3,078,114 | 7.2% | 480,001 | 6,677,541 | ||||
| + | Rhode Island | Safe Dem | D+21.0 | 56.4% | 280,474 | 35.4% | 176,228 | 8.2% | 40,536 | 497,238 | ||||
| + | South Carolina | Safe GOP | R+13.2 | 39.8% | 985,851 | 53.0% | 1,311,821 | 7.2% | 178,222 | 2,475,894 | ||||
| + | South Dakota | Safe GOP | R+28.3 | 31.8% | 129,972 | 60.1% | 245,747 | 8.2% | 33,453 | 409,172 | ||||
| + | Tennessee | Safe GOP | R+24.5 | 34.1% | 1,021,608 | 58.6% | 1,754,865 | 7.3% | 220,121 | 2,996,594 | ||||
| + | Texas | Likely GOP | R+7.0 | 42.9% | 4,885,140 | 50.0% | 5,685,668 | 7.1% | 807,569 | 11,378,377 | ||||
| + | Utah | Safe GOP | R+19.3 | 34.8% | 526,647 | 54.2% | 819,095 | 11.0% | 165,819 | 1,511,561 | ||||
| + | Vermont | Safe Dem | D+34.9 | 62.6% | 224,047 | 27.6% | 98,952 | 9.8% | 35,151 | 358,150 | ||||
| + | Virginia | Likely Dem | D+10.5 | 51.5% | 2,208,147 | 41.0% | 1,757,581 | 7.5% | 320,796 | 4,286,524 | ||||
| + | Washington | Safe Dem | D+19.0 | 54.8% | 2,224,389 | 35.8% | 1,454,539 | 9.4% | 380,779 | 4,059,708 | ||||
| + | West Virginia | Safe GOP | R+40.2 | 26.0% | 197,759 | 66.2% | 502,955 | 7.8% | 59,286 | 760,000 | ||||
| + | Wisconsin | Tilt GOP | R+0.9 | 45.8% | 1,438,862 | 46.7% | 1,466,230 | 7.4% | 233,397 | 3,138,490 | ||||
| + | Wyoming | Safe GOP | R+46.4 | 22.0% | 57,776 | 68.4% | 179,646 | 9.7% | 25,375 | 262,796 | ||||